The pressure of reform on the pharmaceutical industry is diminishing, and the cost of medical insurance is no longer equal to that of the industry, and the control fee is transferred from the total control to the refined operation.
He believes that after 2015, the fda issued a series of policies to improve the quality of medicines and the pricing of drug procurement is gradually diversified. Together, though the most varieties of price pressure still exists, but the signal is a worthy, plants with the pricing power has started to buck the price increases, price increase is not only the blood products. "By comparing the health care system in southeast Asian countries like Japan and South Korea, we find that most of the problems in our pharmaceutical industry have been experienced in Japan. Japan has also faced a decline in growth after the health reform, but the Japanese medical index has long outperformed the broader market.
There are several ways to break out of pharmaceutical enterprises in Japan, Korea and other countries: first, innovation and internationalization. Takeda Japanese company for example, after Japan's bubble, it is very strong, after 2000 by buying a lot of the United States, Germany, India's drug companies, realize the globalization strategy, creating the so-called takeda miracle. Second, through merger and acquisition integration, improve the industry concentration. In Japan, after the 1990s, the drugstores came out of the independent market, and mergers and acquisitions played a big role. After 2000, Japanese pharmaceutical companies made a lot of acquisitions, and now the number of Japanese pharmaceutical companies is about 10% to 15%.
In the long run, he argues, the pharmaceutical industry is still big. Slow down is not equal to his judgment, industry index will lose market, the pharmaceutical industry's structural opportunities may be constantly emerging, and leading enterprise in the future will do more and more good, now has 4000 domestic drug firms, with the improvement of concentration in the future, the rest of the next decade drug firms may be only a few hundred.
Xu Jiaxi believes that the current domestic medical field still remain some problems: such as the lack of the supply of high quality, low homogeneity phenomenon exists for a long time, so the pharmaceutical industry also needs to reform of the supply side. He thinks the future of opportunity may exist the following several aspects: one is the innovation medicine is slowly start, although the process may be slow, but many domestic pharmaceutical companies have been toward this direction, and start some achievements, the future innovation medicine is likely to form agitation; Second, the export of generic drugs is also promising; In addition, the price elasticity of low-cost medicine is gradually, because of the consistency evaluation is expected to close down backward production facilities, excluding price raiders, stay in the future of the enterprise is in the red sea shark, as a result, these cheap medicine in the future there may be further increases in the space, if the market is not sensitive response, there is a better investment opportunities.
Xu Jiaxi judgment finally, in 2017, with the market in other industries, the pharmaceutical industry may have a comparative advantage, is expected to obtain the relative excess earnings, but the absolute return space is limited, so, should also be based on the bottom-up mining stocks structural opportunities. In 2017, he thought, the investment will focus on the business trend upward drug firms, benefit from the new medical reform of pharmaceutical commercial leading and the management level to improve the small and medium-sized companies or price pressures eased